1,000,000 Homes Missing

The analytics firm CoreLogic took aim at the National Association of Realtors in a report Tuesday that claims the trade group overestimated home sales last year by 15%-20%.

Mark Fleming, CoreLogic's chief economist, said there is a significant discrepancy — of at least 1.3 million home sales — between his firm's sales estimates and those of the Realtors group that can be attributed to their vastly different methodology.

CoreLogic estimated that home sales totaled 3.6 million last year, down 12% from 4.1 million in 2009.

The real estate agents' group said home sales fell 5% last year, to 4.9 million.

CoreLogic counts filings at county record offices nationwide and benchmarks the changes in ownership against data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the Census Bureau and from bank filings that comply with the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act.

The Realtors' sales data comes from a sample of 40% of Multiple Listing Service data, said Walter Molony, a spokesman for the trade group.

In the last two months, the Realtor group has been consulting with outside housing economists, academics and government officials and is undertaking a "re-benchmarking using independent sources," Molony said.

The trade group expects to release revisions to its seasonally adjusted annual sales rates and to the month's supply of inventory for the past three years on Feb. 28.

"There has been a notable increase in non traditional sales outside the MLS's such as bulk transactions by investors," Molony said. "We disagree with CoreLogic's assumptions and think they were premature in putting their numbers out."

The disparity is more pronounced when looking at the monthly supply of unsold homes on the market, which often is used as a key determinant of health.

CoreLogic, of Santa Ana, Calif., estimates the 16-month supply of homes in November was the highest level since February 2009. The Realtor group estimates there was an eight-month supply of homes during the same period. A normal market has a six- to seven-month supply, Fleming said.

Lawrence Yun, the Realtor group's chief economist, said last month that home sales were on an uptrend and the market was "getting much closer to an adequate, sustainable level."

Fleming said the upcoming spring selling season will determine whether the market gets out of its doldrums.

"Our data tells us there are fewer homes being sold relative to the inventory level," Fleming said. "Moreover, there will be increased headwinds on borrowers' abilities to obtain financing, because loans will become more expensive as the market normalizes and begins to more appropriately price for risk."