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Thursday, February 17, 2011
1,000,000 Homes Missing
Mark Fleming, CoreLogic's chief economist, said there is a significant discrepancy — of at least 1.3 million home sales — between his firm's sales estimates and those of the Realtors group that can be attributed to their vastly different methodology.
CoreLogic estimated that home sales totaled 3.6 million last year, down 12% from 4.1 million in 2009.
The real estate agents' group said home sales fell 5% last year, to 4.9 million.
CoreLogic counts filings at county record offices nationwide and benchmarks the changes in ownership against data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the Census Bureau and from bank filings that comply with the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act.
The Realtors' sales data comes from a sample of 40% of Multiple Listing Service data, said Walter Molony, a spokesman for the trade group.
In the last two months, the Realtor group has been consulting with outside housing economists, academics and government officials and is undertaking a "re-benchmarking using independent sources," Molony said.
The trade group expects to release revisions to its seasonally adjusted annual sales rates and to the month's supply of inventory for the past three years on Feb. 28.
"There has been a notable increase in non traditional sales outside the MLS's such as bulk transactions by investors," Molony said. "We disagree with CoreLogic's assumptions and think they were premature in putting their numbers out."
The disparity is more pronounced when looking at the monthly supply of unsold homes on the market, which often is used as a key determinant of health.
CoreLogic, of Santa Ana, Calif., estimates the 16-month supply of homes in November was the highest level since February 2009. The Realtor group estimates there was an eight-month supply of homes during the same period. A normal market has a six- to seven-month supply, Fleming said.
Lawrence Yun, the Realtor group's chief economist, said last month that home sales were on an uptrend and the market was "getting much closer to an adequate, sustainable level."
Fleming said the upcoming spring selling season will determine whether the market gets out of its doldrums.
"Our data tells us there are fewer homes being sold relative to the inventory level," Fleming said. "Moreover, there will be increased headwinds on borrowers' abilities to obtain financing, because loans will become more expensive as the market normalizes and begins to more appropriately price for risk."
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Market Update
Previous close 101.030
Opened Down 0.09bp @ 100.938
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.3483 Down 0.0004
USD / JPY 83.9053 Up 0.1390
GBP / USD 1.6016 Down 0.0110
OIL 84.98 Up 0.66
Gold 1,375.50 Up 1.40
Key Economic News:
Core Indexes Surge; Jump in Starts All in Multifamily
Core producer price indexes surge at both finished and intermediate goods stages of processing, with no single component responsible for these significant upside surprises. Housing starts also rise more than expected, but increase is entirely in multifamily sector and appears due to efforts to start construction before changes in building codes.
KEY NUMBERS:
Producer price index +0.8% in Jan (mom, +3.6% yoy) vs. median forecast +0.8%.
Ex food and energy +0.5% in Jan (mom, +1.6% yoy) vs. median forecast +0.2%.
Housing starts +14.6% in Jan (mom, -2.6% yoy) vs. median forecast +1.9%.
Permits -10.4% in Jan (mom, -10.7% yoy) vs. median forecast -10.9%.
MAIN POINTS:
1. The core indexes of the producer price index surged in January-up 0.5% for finished goods and 1.0% for intermediate goods. In the case of the finished goods component, the increases were sprinkled widely enough that no single factor can be blamed. Scanning the report, pharmaceuticals, tires and tubes, sanitary paper products, toys and games, sporting goods, commercial furniture, and truck trailers all posted monthly increases of 1% or more. In the intermediate sector, prices of industrial chemicals accounted for roughly ¼ of the 1.0% increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data for prior months were revised to update seasonal factors.
2. Although this was a huge and unexpectedly diverse increase in the core finished goods index, we would be reluctant to make much of it in terms of implications for core consumer inflation, as correlation between the two have been much weaker in the past 25 years than before. Surprisingly, food and energy were fairly tame, rising 0.3% and 1.8%, respectively.
3. Housing starts rose 14.6% in January to 596k, as a 77.7% surge in multi-family starts outweighed a 1% drop in single-family starts. Moreover, there were small downward revisions to December. Permits for new construction, however, fell 10.4%. In particular, permits for multi-family houses-which tend to have most predictive power for future housing activity-slumped by 23.8%. As noted last month, permits rose sharply at year-end 2010 to beat changes in building codes that went into effect in several states; this had a pronounced effect on the multifamily figures that will be fleeting.
9:15: Industrial production and capacity utilization for Jan...a decent gain? Although payroll gains in January were disappointing overall, the manufacturing sector managed to add 49,000 jobs. This plus an uptick in the workweek in that sector suggests another decent increase in industrial output, despite the poor weather.
On production, median forecast (of 80): +0.5%, ranging from -0.5% to +0.9%; last +0.8%.
On capacity utilization, median forecast (of 66): 76.3%, ranging from 75.4% to 78.00%; last 76.0%.
14:00: Minutes to the Jan 25-26 FOMC meeting...not as boring as the statement. Although the meeting itself did not produce any material surprises, the markets will nonetheless read these minutes carefully. The committee probably marked up its forecast for near-term growth. We'll also be interested in whether more members feel that the longer-run sustainable level of unemployment has moved up and in any color on the range of views about future policy.
Advice:
I would float and lock at the end of today, if the market permits.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Market Update
Previous close 100.780
Opened Down 0.06bp @ 100.719
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.3522 Up 0.0033
USD / JPY 83.7950 Up 0.4703
GBP / USD 1.6157 Up 0.0119
OIL 85.30 Up 0.49
Gold 1,372.10 Up 7.00
Key Economic News:
Soft Sales, Due to Weather; Empire Index and Import Prices Both Firm
A weaker than expected retail sales report, mainly due to downward revisions to Nov and Dec. Weather clearly a factor in recent months as non-store retailers outperform relative to recent differentials. Empire index shows further gains in manufacturing in New York State while import prices surge in reaction to commodity price pressures.
KEY NUMBERS:
Retail sales +0.3% in Jan (mom, +7.1% yoy) vs. median forecast +0.5%.
Ex autos +0.3% in Jan (mom, +5.4% yoy) vs. median forecast +0.5%.
Import prices +1.5% in Jan (mom, % yoy) vs. median forecast +0.8%.
Empire index 15.43 in Feb vs. median forecast +15.
MAIN POINTS:
1. Retail sales rose less than expected in January, although the core component-sales ex autos, building materials, and gasoline-was in line with the consensus view (+0.4%) and just a touch less than we had thought (about ½%). However, data for November and December were revised down 0.2% and an additional 0.3%, respectively. We expect a small downward adjustment to the consumption component of the fourth-quarter real GDP growth rate (currently 4.4% at an annual rate for consumption) and see the tracking into the first quarter for purchases of goods at just over half the fourth quarter (nominal) 6.6% annual rate.
2. The report provides clear evidence of weather effects over the past three months in retail spending, as non-store retailers posted gains of 1.5%, 2.6%, and 1.2% for November, December and January, respectively. While this category is trending higher than the total as more Americans shop from the comfort of home, this three-month increase of 5.4% (not annualized) versus a paltry 0.9% for core sales is a much bigger difference than the difference in year-to-year trends (13.4% vs. 4.3%).
3. The Empire index rises from 11.92 in January to 15.43 in February. New orders remain broadly unchanged (down round half a point to 11.8) but shipments decline (by around 14 points to 11.31). The index for employees falls (by almost 5 points to 3.61) but the index for inventories rises (by almost 5 points to 9.64). The index for prices paid rises 10 points to 45.78.
4. Import prices rose 1.5% month-on-month in January (5.3% yoy), with increases across a variety of commodity-related categories: prices for "industrial supplies" rose 3.3% on the month, while foods and beverages were up 2.6%, and petroleum 3.4%. Categories dominated by manufactured goods, including capital goods and consumer goods, showed much lower inflation (+0.1% and +0.3% respectively).
10:00: Housing market index for Feb….still at a very low level? This index continues to hang in the mid teens, where it has been for most of the past three years. Nobody expects much of a change this month.
Median forecast (of 47): 16, ranging from 15 to 18; last 16.
10:00: Business inventories for Dec…did retail remain flat? The median forecast of a 0.7% increase implies no change in retail inventories given what has already been reported for manufacturing (+1.1%) and wholesale (+1.0%).
Median forecast (of 51): +0.7%, ranging from +0.2% to +1.0%; last +0.2%.
13:00: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies on the administration's FY 2012 budget…before the House Ways and Means Committee.
14:00: OMB Director Jacob Lew testifies on the administration's FY 2012 budget…before the Senate Budget Committee.
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…can't seem to hold those gains. This index fell back to -46 in the first week of February from a comparatively high -41 in the last week of January. Its nearly 3-year range is -54 to -40.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Don't give me 100%
A coach wants you to give your best effort. So what does he do? He says he wants you to give him "110 percent."
Not much has changed in my mind since I heard a coach use this line the very first time. In fact, I'm still trying to wrap my noggin around exactly what 110 percent would look like - or feel like.
After all, if everyone uses about 10 percent of his potential mind power, then why would I need 100 percent - much less 110 percent - in order to win? Seems to me if I was able to give 11% of my mind's power instead of 10%, I might move to the head of the pack.
Moreover, a one percent bump in performance is much easier to see and feel than 110. Former NBA coach Pat Riley figured this out long ago, when he coached the Los Angeles Lakers. After the team had already snagged a title, he re-motivated them by getting every single player to commit to a 1% improvement in rebounding, shooting, assists, free throws and so on.
This 1% commitment led to some staggering results. Some players, just by being able to see themselves giving 1% more, ended up doing 20% or more better than the year previous.
In Taoist internal martial arts, the focus is NEVER on giving 100% of your very best. Why? Because when you try to give 100%, you add unnecessary tension to the equation - and this tension never results in increased performance.
The other night I was warming my son, Frank, up in the bullpen prior to a Little League scrimmage. Unlike other days, he was way off in this throws. The balls were flying a couple feet over my head. Or wide right - or wide left.
I walked up to him and increased the depth of his inhale and exhale. Why? Because he was hardly breathing at all. And if someone isn't breathing with each pitch, guess what's he holding onto?
TENSION.
Just by getting him to relax via a good inhale and exhale, his aim improved 100 percent.
But then I added some other internal martial arts knowledge to his pitching. I gave him a specific percentage of his maximum I wanted him to be using when he throws. I based this number upon what I know will give him maximum velocity and control.
I can assure you the percentage I gave him was NOT 100 percent - much less the highly-touted "110 percent."
Guess what happened?
He started throwing perfect strikes to me. And they were stinging my hand. Let me tell you, when a 10-year old throws hard enough to sting your hand, he's got some ooomph.
When Frank took the mound a few minutes later, he looked great. One bullet after another. Three up three down.
Every pitcher has good days and bad days. It's rare that one who is doing poorly can be turned around on the same day. Yet, that's what happened with my son the other night.
It's a natural and typical occurrence with the kids I work with.
Last night I worked with a few of the other pitchers - all of whom are beginners. None of these kids could throw a perfect strike.
But after a few minutes of changing the mental pictures of what they're doing - they were tossing strikes.
Each kid went home believing in himself a little more than when he started out. And this belief will result in improved performance, not just in practice - but in the games as well.
Ridding your body of tension is key to superior performance. It's key to getting the most out of life.
It's key to turning wild pitches into perfect strikes.
Believe me, success isn't about giving 100 percent or 110 percent. It's about learning to get more out of yourself while feeling like you're doing less.
It's being in a relaxed-ready state that allows for maximum output.
Tension interferes with output. It creates physical, mental and spiritual resistance.
You're much better off with ZERO RESISTANCE .
Zero Interference from your mind-body.
By Matt Furey
Rate Hits High Not Seen Since April 2010
Market Update
Previous close 100.310
Opened Down 0.22bp @ 100.094
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.3617 Down 0.0116
USD / JPY 83.0450 Up 0.6880
GBP / USD 1.6043 Down 0.0059
OIL 86.25 Down 0.46
Gold 1,354.10 Down 11.40
Key Economic News:
Sharp drop probably affected by weather
Initial claims fall sharply, but may be due al least in part to poor weather. Continuing claims continue to drift lower.
Key Numbers:
Initial claims -36k to 383k in week ended Feb 5 vs. median forecast 410k.
Continuing claims -47k to 3.888 million in week ended Jan 29 vs. median forecast 3.9 million.
Main Points:
1. Initial claims fell sharply in the first week of February, to the lowest level since early July 2008. Although we think the trend is improving, this figure must be discounted on account of poor weather, at least until confirmed by the next week's report. Recall that major snow and ice storm blanketed most of the country during the week.
2. Continuing claims are generally less affected by the weather, and the week to which the latest data refer also did not have as serious a disturbance in this regard. Hence, we're more inclined to see the roughly in-line reading as consistent with gradual improvement in the labor market. The number of people receiving benefits from extended and emergency programs rose by about 84k in the week ended Jan 22, undoing a similar decline from the preceding week.
10:00: Wholesale inventories for Dec...a moderate increase? These inventories are goods that are essentially in transit from factories or from the docks to final destinations such as retail outlets and are therefore difficult to forecast, and they have been quite volatile of late. The median increase is about one-half of what the Commerce Department assumed in its preliminary GDP estimate for the fourth quarter.
Median forecast (of 35): +0.7%, ranging from -0.4% to +1.8%; last -0.2%.
14:00: The US budget balance for Jan...better than a year ago, once corrected for calendar quirks. The CBO estimates that the US Treasury ran a $53bn deficit in January. This is $10bn larger than in January 2010, but $16bn smaller once special calendar effects are taken into account. This would bring the four-month fiscal year total to $242bn. , versus $431bn at the same point in FY 2010.
CBO -$53bn; median forecast (of 29): -$55bn, ranging from -$70bn to +$60.5bn; last (Jan 2010): -$42.6bn.
16:30: Federal reserve balance sheet...Last week the balance sheet expanded by nearly $26bn. It is closing in on $2.5trn, on its way to what we expect will be about a $2.9trn level by the time the asset purchase program is done in June.
Advice:
With unemployment slowly improving, even with the effects of bad weather. I expect the market to slip back below 100.00 again.
I would lock short term and long term today.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Market Update
Opened -19 BP from previous close (Opening Price 97.438)
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.3644 Up 0.0061
USD / JPY 82.1373 Down 0.1885
GBP / USD 1.6066 Down 0.0043
OIL 86.59 Down 0.89
Gold 1,356.50 Up 8.30
Key Economic News:
A few second- and third-tier indicators, on small business sentiment, job vacancies and turnover, and consumer confidence…
7:30: NFIB small business optimism index for Jan…another leg up? This index gave back a part of the gain it posted in November, but all 12 of the analysts who have forecasts for January look for another modest increase. The improvement in recent months reflects modestly better assessments for a wide range of business conditions, including expectations of easier credit, better general economic conditions, sales, and plans to increase employment.
Median forecast (of 12): 94, ranging from 93 to 96; last 92.6.
10:00 JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) for Dec…This monthly survey shows steady improvement in vacancies but only modest evidence of a pickup in hires.
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…faint signal through a lot of noise. This index is back up to the old resistance level of -41, ready (hopefully) to push though again.
Monday, February 7, 2011
This Week - Market Update
The bond and mortgage markets have solidly broken out of their long tight ranges to higher rates. The 10 yr note appears to have a clear path to 3.75% while mortgage rates are likely to increase another 10 to 15 basis points in rate. Concerns of higher interest rates in Europe, China and the rest of the BRICs as well as improving economic conditions will keep US rates from falling with the most likely path being up for rates. One key thing to keep in mind, US rates remain as low as we have had for generations. If lenders don't see it as a positive consumers certainly won't.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Bernanke Criticizes Efforts to Audit Fed
The main reason is that Auditing the Federal Reserve isn't exactly what we need to improve the economy. We need to abolish the Federal Reserve and follow the example of the original colonist that set up a monetary system using colonial script. This was money that was created in limited supply to be balanced with the demands of the time.
But the most important feature of their system was that they didn't have to borrow the money from the Central Bank of England and start off in debt. Nor did they have to pay taxes on the money earned.
I will write more about this in the future but the bottom line is this, the more people educate themselves about the Federal Reserve and the entire creation and operation of our monetary system, the more you understand why the Federal Reserve is something we can do without. Now see the article below.
Bernanke Criticizes Efforts to Audit Fed
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday admonished Congress for its efforts to reach further into the central bank's books, saying such pursuits would ultimately lead to a "bad outcome" for the U.S. economy.
Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, who now chairs the House Financial Services subcommittee that oversees the Fed, has been pressing to audit the Fed's monetary policies in order to have greater oversight of the central bank's decisions, primarily how it sets interest rates.
"It should be up to the Fed to make monetary policy decisions independently of short-term political influences and with an eye for long-term objectives of the economy," Bernanke said in a speech at the National Press Club.
He said such an audit would be a significant step toward direct congressional oversight of the Fed's monetary policy decision-making.
"Personally, I think it would be a very bad outcome," he said. "Central banks [that] are independent in their decision-making and have a clear mandate provide a much better outcome both in the economy and financial markets than a central bank which is being dictated by short-term considerations."
Still, Bernanke made clear that in other areas, like its liquidity efforts, the Fed is an open book and will continue to be so.
"Every aspect of the Fed's financial dealings are wide open, and we have invited" the Government Accountability Office "to come in and look at all of our extraordinary activities through the crisis and all of our ongoing financial activities," he said. "All of our assets, all of our transactions are open to the public and will be open to the public, and I'm committed to that transparency."
Bernanke also reiterated hopes that banks will expand lending, though with proper underwriting.
"We obviously don't want banks to make bad loans. … We want them to make sound loans," he said. "On the other hand, when you have a creditworthy borrower coming and asking for credit, it's in the interest of the bank, it's in the interest of the borrower and it's in the interest of the whole economy that loan get made, so we need to find the appropriate balance."
By Donna Borak
Market Update
Previous close 98.060
Opened Down 0.25bp @ 97.813
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.3582 Down 0.0053
USD / JPY 81.7345 Up 0.1075
GBP / USD 1.6078 Down 0.0058
OIL 91.34 Up 0.80
Gold 1,352.50 Down 0.50
Key Economic News:
Jobless rate falls to 9.0% in January; Payrolls rise 36,000
The jobless rate unexpectedly fell in January to the lowest level since April 2009, while payrolls rose less than expected, depressed by winter storms. Unemployment declined to 9.0% from 9.4% in December. Employment rose by 36,000 workers, the smallest gain in four months, after 121,000 rise in December that was larger than initially reported. Payrolls were projected to climb to 146,000. Payrolls in construction and transportation, industries most effected by bad weather, dropped in January, while factory employment rose the most since August 1998.
Advice:
If you like to gamble, you might want to float today. But I would recommend you lock today.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Market Update
Previous close 98.470
Opened Down 0.25bp @ 98.219
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.3687 Down 0.0133
USD / JPY 81.7590 Up 0.2113
GBP / USD 1.6189 Down 0.0002
OIL 91.15 Up 0.29
Gold 1,336.30 Down 4.20
Key Economic News:
Solid productivity growth; Jobless claims down
Data modestly better than expected across the board as jobless claims revert to lower levels while productivity growth posts a solid advance in Q4.
Key Numbers:
Nonfarm productivity +2.6% annualized in Q4 vs. consensus +2.0%.
Unit labor costs -0.6% annualized in Q4 vs. -1.0% consensus +0.2%.
Initial jobless claims 415,000 in week of Jan 29 vs. consensus 420,000.
Continuing claims 3.925m vs. consensus 3.95m.
Main Points:
1. Nonfarm productivity turned in another good showing, rising 2.6% annualized in the fourth quarter (+1.7% yoy). With labor compensation posting only modest gains, unit labor costs fell in Q4. Unit labor costs have fallen 6 of the past 8 quarters, consistent with the sharp increase in corporate profit margins over this period.
2. Jobless claims moved down to 415,000 in the week of January 29, reversing most of the prior week's increase. Even so, the four-week moving average of new claims is now 431,000, somewhat above its low of 411,000 at the end of 2010. The Labor Department indicated that the drop in claims was concentrated in states that saw storm-related increases the prior week, so we are inclined to take the recent numbers more as evidence of inclement weather than any change in the underlying trend.
3. Continuing claims fell to 3.925 million while the number of people receiving extended benefits fell by 68,000 to 4.55m.
10:00: ISM nonmfg index for Jan...will it improve? Its manufacturing counterpart was exceptionally strong this month. Ahead of tomorrow's payroll report, the employment index will be of particular interest, given generally encouraging labor market data.
Median forecast (of 73): 57.1, ranging from 54.5 to 62; last 57.1.
10:00: Factory orders for Dec....a small setback? The durable goods portion of this report is already known and was down 2.5% in December, hence forecasts for a decline in the overall orders measure.
Median forecast (of 67): -0.5%, ranging from -1.5% to +2.0%; last +0.7%.
13:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks...at the National Press Club. With the last Fed statement making clear that QE2 is essentially on autopilot at this stage, markets will likely focus on any differences in tone with respect to the economic outlook and any hints about the likely procedure and timing for winding down the asset purchase program.
16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet...With QE2 underway, the Fed's balance sheet remains in expansion mode through midyear.
Advice:
My position on MBS stays neutral today.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Market Update
Previous close 98.690
Opened Up 0.16bp @ 98.844
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.3787 Down 0.0043
USD / JPY 81.4440 Up 0.0993
GBP / USD 1.6186 Up 0.0044
OIL 91.05 Up 0.28
Gold 1,377.40 Down 2.90
Key Economic News:
The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of ,mortgage applications rose 11.3%, almost erasing the 12.9% drop in the prior week. The indexes of purchase loans and refinancing both shared in the increase, advancing 9.5% and 11.7%, respectively.
Another strong labor market reading
ADP report stronger than expected in January, although December figure revised down substantially. Although its forecasting record is spotty, the report is consistent with our expectation that the trend in private-sector hiring is picking up.
Key Numbers:
ADP reports predicts 187k in private non farm payrolls for Jan vs. median forecast +140k.
Analysis:
The ADP report on private-sector payrolls by 187k in January, coming in stronger than expected. The December figure, however, was revised down by 50k to 247k. The January increase was mainly driven by higher employment at service companies (up 166k), but employment at goods-producing firms also rose (+21k). Employment in manufacturing rose by 18k. The headline increase was mainly driven by hiring at small (+97k) and medium firms (+79k); employment at large firms rose only slightly (+11k).
9:00: Quarterly refunding announcement...will they shut down the SLGS window? We expect a package of 72bn-$32bn in 3-year notes, $24bn in 10-year notes, and $16bn in 30-year bonds-to redeem $23.4bn in maturing issue and to raise $48.6bn in net cash. This represents no change from the November refunding in either the size or composition of gross issuance. We do not expect any changes in the coupon schedule, but it is possible that Treasury will use this opportunity to suspend issuance of State and Local Government Securities (SLGS) in anticipation of reaching the debt ceiling sometime this spring. Absent a major surprise from Congress on the debt ceiling, that suspension is coming as the next logical step in creating room to continue the marketable borrowing schedule. It's just a question of when.
Advice:
I believe today we will see similar trading as yesterday, again in the range of 98.626 to 99.000.
I would lock today.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Market Update
Previous close 99.125
Opened Down 0.25bp @ 98.875
Key Economic Data:
EUR / USD 1.3760 Up 0.0066
USD / JPY 81.6003 Down 0.4445
GBP / USD 1.6093 Up 0.0079
OIL 91.55 Down 0.64
Gold 1,339.30 Up 4.80
Key Economic News:
ISM manufacturing, construction outlays, vehicle sales, and the weekly confidence survey...
10:00: ISM manufacturing index for Jan...upside risk. This should be a solid report on momentum in the US manufacturing sector.
Median forecast (of 78): 58, ranging from 556 to 59.5; last 58.5 (revised from 57.0).
10:00: Construction outlays for Dec...which way? Most forecasters anticipate a small increase in outlays, but there are some expectations of significant declines.
Median forecast (of 49): +0.1%, ranging from -1.3% to +0.5%; last +0.4%.
Late morning/early afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales for Jan...hurt by poor weather and limited supply? Anecodotal reports from the manufacturers suggest a modest hit to sales from poor weather and tight inventories for popular models, but others see a firmer outcome.
For total sales: median forecast (of 38): 12.6mm, ranging from 11.8mm to 12.9mm; last 12.53mm.
For domestic: median forecast (of 17): 9.42mm, ranging from 9.2mm to 9.7mm; last 9.46mm.
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index...faint signal through a lot of noise. If you squint real hard, this index exhibits a very small upward trend from early 2008 on, but it has backed off a 2 1/2 year high over the past two weeks.
Advice:
With the news out of Egypt, it looks like Friday will be a big day. The weaker dollar could help the MBS market, unless we see some crazy numbers out of vehicle sales. I see the market trading around the 99.000 mark.
I don't believe this is a time to gamble. I would lock today.
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