Major leading indicator in free fall!

In my July 14 Money and Markets column, I explained how the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index confirmed my bearish forecast.

Back then, the index's growth rate was minus 8.3 percent. And it is continuing to free fall — tumbling to minus 10.3 percent for the week ending July 30.

Since the year-over-year percentage change sliced through the zero line at the end of May, it has quickly fallen to levels signaling a very high risk of recession. What's more, it has never fallen as low as its current reading without the economy already in — or on its way to — a recession.

In addition to the ECRI weekly indicator's very clear message, I see six more reasons that back up my argument for a double-dip recession hitting the U.S.:

First, the economic rebound since March 2009 was bought with unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. There has not been a real, market-generated recovery.

Second, despite the huge sums of taxpayer money and serial bail outs, the rebound is the weakest on record.

Third, at least 80 percent of this huge stimulus program has been used up. There isn't much left to keep the economic engines running.

Fourth, aside from government debt, the wheels of credit creation are still sputtering. And that's a problem, since former recoveries have always been driven by credit growth.

Last week's employment report spells bad news for retailers.

Fifth, the labor market is still in dire straits — and so is consumer spending. Friday's disappointing payroll report is a very strong hint that the labor market is again deteriorating.

Following the ECRI data, this is not surprising. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between the ECRI weekly index and payroll numbers. Furthermore, I expect much weaker employment reports in the weeks and months to come.

Sixth, the housing mess has not been cleaned up yet. I expect another huge wave of mortgage debt defaults, leading to another round of falling home prices and problems for the banking sector.

All in all, the big economic picture is pretty grim. Indeed, the economy is at a crossroads here. Unfortunately, though, it seems to be heading down the recession path again.

And since every recession in history has been accompanied by a severe stock bear market, my suggestion is clear: Make sure that your portfolio is protected from this wealth-destroying scenario.

by Claus Vogt

Pending home sales fall 30% in May

New sales contracts on existing homes fell sharply in May after a federal subsidy for buyers expired at the end of April, a trade group reported Thursday.

The pending home sales index fell 30% in May after rising 23% between January and April, the National Association of Realtors reported. The index, which measures signed sales contracts on previously owned homes, was down 15.9% compared with the same month a year ago.

Countywide Sued For Racial Profiling

The state of Illinois is suing former mortgage Goliath Countrywide Financial for allegedly using discriminatory lending practices for minority applicants.

The lawsuit, filed in Cook County Circuit Court by Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, said an investigation revealed that African-American and Latino borrowers were much more likely to be given risky subprime loans by the lender than similarly situated whites from 2005 to 2007.

The lawsuit also alleged that a statistical analysis revealed that the company charged Latino and African-American borrowers more interest and fees on certain mortgages than whites.

Countrywide, which was the largest mortgage lender in Illinois from 2004 to 2006, is now a subsidiary of Bank of America.

In a statement, Bank of America Corp. said it was "disappointed" with the attorney general's decision to sue over practices that preceded its taking ownership of the company in 2008.

"We have fully cooperated with their investigation and have pointed out significant flaws in the methodology which we believe has been used as the basis for these claims," the bank said in a statement.

The lawsuit estimates that the company's practices caused about 6,000 African-American and Latino borrowers to be steered into subprime mortgages and in some cases charged higher prices for their mortgages. Overall, the attorney general's office found that African-American and Latino borrowers were three times more likely than white borrowers to receive a higher-cost subprime mortgage.

In 2008, Illinois, California and at least six other states reached an $8.8 billion settlement with Countrywide stemming from a lawsuit claiming the company and its executives defrauded borrowers.

MAD AT WORK? DON'T HAVE A HEART ATTACK

There's a motto that many folks swear by at work -- "Go along to get along" -- and it suddenly looks like very bad advice. That's because new research has found a link between suppressing workplace anger and increased risk for heart attack. In other words, holding anger inside at the office could literally kill you.

Though this research began more than a decade ago, it has become particularly relevant in our difficult economic times. Workers may feel uneasy about the consequences of disagreement or having a misunderstanding with a boss or colleague. People may experience more job-related pressures but also feel less appreciated. We've heard many disturbing accounts of disgruntled workers reacting violently when things aren't going the way they want them to... yet as this study makes clear, it's not healthy to hold in
your feelings all the time either.

MAD MEN AT WORK

Working with a group of 2,832 Swedish men, the researchers designed a questionnaire to quantify each participant's typical style for handling angry feelings toward superiors or colleagues at work. A series of questions measured the likelihood that each participant would react "covertly" by suppressing his anger (walking away and taking some time to calm himself, but not taking up the issue again)... holding feelings inside and later developing physical symptoms such as a headache or stomachache... or venting his anger elsewhere. What they found is what makes gulping down your angry thoughts and words at work look very unwise. The more covert a participant's style of handling workplace anger, the more likely he was to have had a heart attack in the period between 1992 (when the study began) and 2003 (when it ended).
What does this mean for heart health? The researchers found that those who tended to handle conflict with a superior or coworker by suppressing their anger without saying anything (just "letting it pass") had double the risk for heart attack or cardiac death compared with those who never or seldom behaved this way... and for those who held their anger inside and suffered physical distress later, the risk was
triple.

Note: Though this study examined only men, study coauthor Tores Theorell, MD, PhD, professor emeritus and scientific advisor at the Stress Research Institute at Stockholm University, said that covert coping is actually even more common among women. The study was reported in the November 2009 issue of the
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health.

$OK -- YOU'RE MAD -- WHAT TO DO?

The findings suggest that it's unhealthy to suppress your emotions when you're treated unfairly, say the researchers. But other research has shown that simply venting -- expressing strong anger directly -- actually can trigger a heart attack (although rarely), so this is not a healthy option either. I called a workplace-management consultant to ask about the healthiest ways to handle anger at work -- both for your well-being and for your career.

"Blowing up or holding in anger can both lead to problems, and people who suppress their anger eventually blow up anyway," I heard from Emil F. Coccaro, MD, professor of psychiatry and director of the clinical neuroscience and psychopharmacology research unit in the department of psychiatry at The University of Chicago. Dr. Coccaro said that the goal is not just to get through a situation but "to be calm inside and out and to not feel as if the world is out to get you."

TAKE A TIME-OUT

The best and simplest strategy for handling anger at work is one any modern parent will recognize -- a "time-out." "Excuse yourself and go for a walk. After you've calmed down, you're more likely to have a discussion that's rational and produces a good resolution," Dr. Coccaro said. "If you try to discuss the situation when you're angry, you'll say things you'll regret... and also you won't get what you want."

Another cool-down strategy: Do some deep-breathing exercises, or try counting slowly to 10. Then, he suggests, you should mentally review the situation when you've calmed down. Consider whether your anger is justified -- was what the person said or did really so bad? Could it be that you were just feeling irritable that day? Or perhaps you need to take some responsibility... did your own actions trigger something you hadn't foreseen? It's important to try to understand the situation more completely.

Everyone gets angry from time to time and sometimes with good reason. If you're blowing up a few times a week, you may need to be evaluated for anger-management problems, Dr. Coccaro said. Treatment may involve talking with a therapist and sometimes even medication for a short while to help you learn to reframe your thinking about your interactions with others. Sometimes at least some of the problem lies within.

Fannie and Freddie To Be Delisted From Stock Exchanges

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said they intend to delist their stock from the Stock Exchange as the continue to struggle through billions in losses.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, the companies' conservator, said it directed them to delist their stock because of stock-exchange requirements for maintaining price levels above $1 per share.

"FHFA's determination to direct each company to delist does not constitute any reflection on either enterprise's current performance or future direction, nor does delisting imply any other findings or determination on the part of FHFA as regulator or conservator," said Acting Director Edward J. DeMarco.

After the delisting, the two stock of the companies will be traded in the over-the-counter market. Freddie said it expects the delisting of its common stock and the 20 listed classes of its preferred stock from the NYSE will happen on or about July 8. Fannie will delist from the NYSE and the Chicago Stock Exchange.

The crash in the U.S. housing market has pounded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with heavy losses on mortgage debt since 2007. Fannie shares have been below the $1 average price level for 30 trading days. NYSE rules require a company to take action to boost its shares or delist.

Shares of Fannie and Freddie closed at 92 cents and $1.22, respectively, on Tuesday. The stocks are down 22% and 17% so far this year.

The two mortgage giants have struggled heavily amid the housing market's woes. Fannie in May said its first-quarter loss narrowed on fewer write-downs and credit-loss provisions as it requested another $8.5 billion in aid from the federal government. Meanwhile, Freddie posted a narrower first-quarter loss and said it would need a $10.6 billion injection from the Treasury--its first request for aid in four quarters.

The U.S. government established Fannie Mae in 1938 to make mortgages more available to low income families. In 1979, the government created Freddie Mac, to expand the market for mortgages in the country.

Both firms were put into government conservatorship in August 2008, after the housing market collapsed, triggering the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The Week in Review

MONDAY, June 7th

Consumer credit increased by $1.0 billion in April as revolving credit balance like credit cards fell $8.5 billion and non-revolving debt like auto loans increased by $9.5 billion. That is consistent with a surge in auto and truck sales in March. Declines in revolving credit balances are not expected to ease anytime soon as consumers continue to unwind household debt load.

TUESDAY, June 8th

The National Federation of Independent Business' small business optimism index increased 1.6 points to 92.2 in May in its highest reading since September 2008 before the financial crisis and credit crunch. The index remains at recessionary levels however, with businesses putting off hiring until there is a more rapid pick-up in economic activity.

WEDNESDAY, June 9th

The MBA mortgage applications index fell 12.2% to 560.9% for the week ending June 4. The purchase index fell 5.7% while the refinance index dropped 14.3%. Mortgage application activity has fluctuated within a relatively narrow range for the past 10 months and remains near the middle of that range reflecting in large part sustained and historically low mortgage interest rates.

The Fed's survey of economic conditions called the beige book showed that economic activity increased modestly across all 12 Fed banking districts in April and May, since the last report was compiled. Housing demand received a boost from the homebuyer tax credit though commercial real estate was still quite weak in most areas. Consumer and business spending strengthened as labor markets improved. On the inflation front prices were described as largely stable. Slow economic improvement combined with low inflation suggests the Fed will hold monetary policy steady for the foreseeable future.

THURSDAY, June 10th

Jobless claims fell 3k to 456k for the week ending June 5. The level of claims remains elevated and declines in the past three weeks have been only marginal indicating stable but not improving labor market conditions. Job losses continue amid sluggish hiring activity.

The federal government ran a $135.9 billion budget deficit in May compared to a $189.7 billion deficit in May one year ago. For the first eight months of fiscal year 2010, the cumulative budget deficit totaled $935.6 billion vs. a $992.0 billion budget shortfall for the same period in FY 2009. The budget deficit has deteriorated sharply in the last two years mainly due to massive increases in government spending. The OMB is projecting another record deficit of $1.556 trillion again this year.

The international trade deficit on goods and services widened to $40.3 billion in April from a trade gap of $40.0 billion in March. Both imports and exports declined slightly on the month but not by enough to reverse a modest upward trend. Trade activity seems to have stalled in April and will not likely contribute and could possibly subtract from second quarter GDP.

FRIDAY, June 11th

Retail sales fell 1.2% in May compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase. The decline was led by a 9.3% drop in sales at building supply stores, though sales at gas stations, auto dealerships and apparel stores were also weak. The sharp decline last month follows eight consecutive months of gains indicating perhaps that the recovery is losing steam. Nevertheless, retail sales are up 6.9% over May of last year.

Consumer sentiment increased to 75.5% in the first part of June from a reading of 73.6% in May. This was the highest level of sentiment since January 2008. Consumer ratings of current conditions and their expectations both rose in the mid-month period. While not fully recovered because of remaining economic uncertainties, sentiment does continue to improve as the economy moves out of recession.

The Brilliant Alan Keyes on Barack Obama A Radical Communist